Magnesium prices have fallen sharply for the second time this year
Review of domestic price trends In August, domestic magnesium prices fell sharply for the second time this year.
The average monthly domestic spot price of magnesium in August was 14,300 yuan/ton, and the average price from January to August was 13,300 yuan/ton, up 0.68% year-on-year, and the rate of decline continued to narrow. Magnesium prices plummeted by nearly 5% in the first ten days of August, with a drop of about 700 yuan/ton, and rebounded by 300 yuan/ton in the middle and late August, and the market was slightly weaker at the end of the month.
Compared with the sharp drop in May, the magnesium price fell at a rapid rate and a small drop in August. The author believes that this drop is mainly related to the end of summer maintenance. During the summer maintenance period of this year, the Shaanxi area had major engineering shutdowns for maintenance. The production volume of the month has been reduced. The supply reduction in the weakly balanced market will directly cause the price to rise sharply. Coupled with the influence of some speculation factors, the magnesium price in July rose to the highest point in the past two years. At the beginning of August, the news that the manufacturer’s overhaul was completed, the market panicked, and the high prices fell in response. When most people believed that a sharp drop was about to be ushered in, the price of magnesium stopped falling to about 14,000 yuan/ton in time, and the price of magnesium was about 14,000 yuan/ton again. The rebound of 300 yuan/ton indicates that the previous market sentiment was too pessimistic.
As of the end of August, the mainstream cash price of manufacturers in Shanxi was between 14,300 and 14,400 per ton; the quotation in Ningxia was between 14,200 and 14,300 per ton; and the price in Shaanxi was between 14,100 and 14,200 per ton.
In terms of exports, the same as the domestic spot trend, the FOB Tianjin Port price in mid-to-early August also showed a straight downward trend. The magnesium price dropped from US$2,250 to US$2,290/ton to US$2,200 to US$2,240/ton, and the price rebounded to 2220 in the second half of the month. US$~2260/ton. The average monthly FOB price in August was US$2225/ton, and the average price from January to August was US$2107.62/ton, down 6.07% year-on-year.
Review of price trends in the international magnesium market. US market In August, magnesium related prices in the US market were stable.
According to MW reports, the import price of magnesium ingot traders in the United States in August was US$1.50~US$1.55/lb, the western spot price of US magnesium ingots was stable at US$2.10~2.20/lb, and the US die-casting alloy (trader) price was US$1.65~ US$1.95/lb.
European Market The trend of magnesium prices in the European market in August was dominated by an increase.
The price of magnesium ingots disclosed by the British Metal Leader (MB) has stabilized at US$2075~US$2170/ton. The European strategic small metal warehouse in Rotterdam continued to increase its price in August from US$2,100/ton to US$2,150/ton. The European free market price published in the US Metal Weekly (MW) increased from US$2,100 to US$2,200/ton to US$2,175 to US$2,275/ton.
Magnesium market forecast in September The market will be weak and stable at the end of August. Judging from the current price, there will be certain pressure on the market trend in the later period. The expectation of a strong ferrosilicon price, the recovery of the aluminum consumer market and the “golden nine silver ten” of the steel industry have all supported the magnesium price in September, but it is also difficult for magnesium prices to rise sharply again. Excluding the impact of temporary factors, 9 After the month, the market is generally hard to expect. Therefore, it is expected that the magnesium price in September will mainly fluctuate. The price range is between 13,800 and 14,500 yuan/ton. The FOB Tianjin Port price is expected to be between 2,150 and 2,260 US dollars/ton.
Supply analysis According to statistics from China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China produced 501,900 tons of primary magnesium from January to July, an increase of 2.78% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative production in Shaanxi was 253,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.55%; the cumulative production in Shanxi was 83,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.61%; the cumulative production in Ningxia was 82,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 69.79%.
Due to factory maintenance, the monthly output in July decreased compared with the previous month. As the factory maintenance gradually ends, the monthly output in August will increase month-on-month.
Export analysis According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China exported a total of 218,400 tons of various magnesium products from January to July, a year-on-year decrease of 10.86%, and the cumulative amount was US$516 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.47%. Among them, the cumulative export of magnesium ingot was 108,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.17%; the cumulative export of magnesium alloy was 67,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%; the cumulative export of magnesium powder was 36,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.47%.
Due to the adjustment of customs data in the first six months, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in export data from January to July increased to varying degrees.
The price increase of ferrosilicon in related industries was affected by the rebound of the steel market and the temporary reduction in ferrosilicon production. In August, the bidding price of steel mills continued to increase, with the increase range from 100 yuan to 200 yuan/ton, which was higher than last month’s increase. The price has risen accordingly, and the current price of 75# ferrosilicon is basically between 4700 yuan and 4800 yuan/ton. At present, the bidding prices of steel mills in September continue to increase. Some analysts believe that the price of ferrosilicon may continue to rise in September, but the increase is expected to be limited.
Downstream market prices are mainly rising. According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-August, steel companies of China Iron and Steel Association produced 1.749 million tons of crude steel per day, an increase of 50,500 tons or 2.97% from the previous period. Based on this estimate, the country’s daily output of crude steel was 2,291,800 tons in late August, an increase of 2.99% over the previous period.
Industry insiders believe that August is in the off-season for consumption, and downstream demand is flat. The total social inventory of five major types of steel products in 20 cities across the country has increased slightly from the previous month, and the market demand for “Golden Nine Silver Ten” will rebound.
In terms of titanium sponge, according to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China’s titanium sponge production was 35,000 tons from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 14.67%. In August, the domestic titanium sponge rose slightly, and the market price of 0# titanium sponge rose from 46,000 to 48,000 yuan/ton to 48,000 to 49,200 yuan/ton. The price increase is mainly due to the increase in raw material prices. The downstream demand is stable. The downstream manufacturers mainly purchase on-demand. The industry believes that the price of sponge titanium will remain stable in the future.
In the aluminum industry, according to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China’s electrolytic aluminum production from January to July was 17.9759 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.88%. Affected by the continuous pick-up of market demand, the domestic aluminum price showed a fluctuating upward trend in August. The price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River spot market rose from 12,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to about 12,700 yuan/ton. With the resumption of production of aluminum plants and the increase in new production capacity, there is a view that aluminum prices in September will mainly fluctuate.
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